So I'm looking at the lights under the ceiling fans and wondering why one of the lights will periodically go out and then when I touch it it will go back on. The Wife said that it was because the fan keeps moving and so it shakes it loose.

So I've got to thinking is that our reason? We're on this planet and we keep moving in a circle just like the fan, so we're shook loose ourselves. Not on all the time and not particularly bright.

Am I Missing Something?

I'm in part four of Nassim Taleb's book The Black Swan . It is interesting, but still I think that he really doesn't say much except that we can't really predict and that life is controlled by luck. The answer seems to be diversify, so that when something blows up in your face you have another route open to save yourself.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I all ways thought that you really couldn't predict what was going to happen next year let alone ten or fifty years from now. Is that really so hard to figure?

A second point is that you really have to act as thought you could predict somethings because otherwise you couldn't go to work tomorrow. Cause you have to figure what and where you are going. It does seem sort of obvious, but hell I didn't make a million in the market either.

I think that one must live as though there is a fairly good chance that one knows what is going to happen tomorrow or next year, with the understanding that one can't be sure. Of course, his point, I think, is that it is safer to understand that randomness and luck have more to do with life than all the planning and predictions we produce.